“COPOM meets Wednesday and is expected to cut rates 75 bp to 7.5%. IPCA inflation was 2.5% y/y in September, right at the bottom of the 2.5-6.5% target range. Price pressures are picking up, and so we see one last 50 bp cut at the December 6 meeting for a terminal SELIC rate of 7%. Brazil then reports September current account, FDI, and central government budget data Thursday”.
“Central Bank of Turkey meets Thursday and is expected to keep rates steady. Inflation was 11.2% y/y in September, well above the 3-7% target range. Yet the bank will be under great pressure not to tighten any further. We expect further erosion of confidence in the nation’s institutions as a result”.
“Central Bank of Russia meets Friday and is expected to cut rates 25 bp to 8.25%. A small handful of analysts look for a 50 bp cut. Inflation was 3% y/y in September well below the 4% target. While a bigger move is possible, we think the bank will play it safe with a 25 bp cut and follow up with another cut at its next meeting December 15”.
“Colombia central bank meets Friday and is expected to keep rates steady at 5.25%. The bank remained on hold in September as inflation ticked higher to 4% y/y. However, official comments suggest this is just a pause in the cycle. The next meeting after this one is November 24. Timing of the next cut will be very data dependent”.
No comments:
Post a Comment